Inference uncertainty about an aircraft crash

Abstract

Problem-based learning benefits from situations taken from real life, which usually stimulate student interest. In this paper, we examine the shooting down of the Rwandan president's aircraft on April 6th, 1994. We discuss methods to infer information about the location from which the missile was launched, its trajectory and type, where the aircraft was struck and its trajectory during the fall. To this end, we developed a physics-based analysis based on expert reports, witness statements, and other publicly available information, as interpreted by our calculations. The analysis is designed to be understandable using undergraduate-level physics. The uncertainty of each result is discussed and propagated to ensure a proper assessment of the hypotheses and a traceability of their consequences. Such approach encourages the students to exercise their critical mind and teaches inference methods that are routinely used in physics research. In addition, it illustrates the importance and limits of scientific expertise during a judiciary process.