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arXiv · 2501.17305

An SIRS-model considering waning efficiency and periodic re-vaccination

Joseph Páez Chávez·Aytül Gökçe·Thomas Götz·Burcu Gürbüz
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Abstract

In this paper, we extend the classical SIRS (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible) model from mathematical epidemiology by incorporating a vaccinated compartment, V, accounting for an imperfect vaccine with waning efficacy over time. The SIRSV-model divides the population into four compartments and introduces periodic re-vaccination for waning immunity. The efficiency of the vaccine is assumed to decay with the time passed since the vaccination. Periodic re-vaccinations are applied to the population. We develop a partial differential equation (PDE) model for the continuous vaccination time and a coupled ordinary differential equation (ODE) system when discretizing the vaccination period. We analyze the equilibria of the ODE model and investigate the linear stability of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE). Furthermore, we explore an optimization framework where vaccination rate, re-vaccination time, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are control variables to minimize infection levels. The optimization objective is defined using different norm-based measures of infected individuals. A numerical analysis of the model's dynamic behavior under varying control parameters is conducted using path-following methods. The analysis focuses on the impacts of vaccination strategies and contact limitation measures. Bifurcation analysis reveals complex behaviors, including bistability, fold bifurcations, forward and backward bifurcations, highlighting the need for combined vaccination and contact control strategies to manage disease spread effectively.

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Joseph Páez Chávez, Aytül Gökçe, Thomas Götz, Burcu Gürbüz. 2025-01-28. An SIRS-model considering waning efficiency and periodic re-vaccination. https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.17305

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