A Bi-failure Mode Model for Competing Risk Modeling with HMC-Driven Bayesian Framework

Badamasi Abba; Mustapha Muhammad; Muhammad Salihu Isa; Jinbiao Wu

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arXiv · 2502.11507

A Bi-failure Mode Model for Competing Risk Modeling with HMC-Driven Bayesian Framework

Badamasi Abba·Mustapha Muhammad·Muhammad Salihu Isa·Jinbiao Wu

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Abstract

Bathtub failure rate (BFR) and roller-coaster failure rate (RCFR - a sequence of BFR and inverted BFR (IBFR)) shapes are among the non-monotone failure rate function (FRF) behaviors often observed in complex or competing risks (CR) datasets. Recent studies have introduced varied bathtub failure rate models for reliability modeling of such datasets. However, limited attention is paid to the reliability study of CR datasets characterized by RCFR. Motivated by this drawback, this paper proposes the so-called Bi-Failure Modes (BFM) model for robust reliability analysis of CR data exhibiting BFR, RCFR, and several other FRF shapes. The mean residual life function (MRLF) and cause-specific failure probabilities are studied in detail. The fundamental reciprocal relationships between the MRLF and FRF are established. We propose the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC)-based Bayesian framework for estimating the BFM parameters and its reliability attributes to offer greater computational efficiency and faster inference. Two CR datasets from electrode voltage endurance life and electrical appliance tests, respectively, characterized by BFR and RCFR behaviors, are employed to demonstrate the BFM adequacy. The recently introduced Bridge Criterion (BC) metric and other metrics are used to evaluate the BFM modeling performance against five recent methodologies under the maximum likelihood technique. The BFM compatibility with the two datasets is also examined. The findings portrayed the BFM's advantage over other competing candidates.

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Badamasi Abba, Mustapha Muhammad, Muhammad Salihu Isa, Jinbiao Wu. 2025-03-02. A Bi-failure Mode Model for Competing Risk Modeling with HMC-Driven Bayesian Framework. https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.11507

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