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arXiv · 2502.15029

Voter Model Meets Rumour Spreading: an FPRAS for Consensus Probabilities on Voter Models with Agnostic Nodes

Marcelo Matheus Gauy·Anna Abramishvili·Eduardo Colli·Nicolaus Heuer·Tiago Madeira·Frederik Mallmann-Trenn·Vinícius Franco Vasconcelos·David Kohan Marzagão
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Abstract

Problems of consensus in multi-agent systems are often viewed as a series of independent, simultaneous local decisions made between a limited set of options, all aimed at reaching a global agreement. Key challenges in these protocols include estimating the likelihood of various outcomes and finding bounds for how long it may take to achieve consensus, if it occurs at all. To date, little attention has been given to the case where some agents have no initial opinion. In this paper, we introduce a variant of the consensus problem which includes what we call `agnostic' nodes and frame it as a combination of two known and well-studied processes: voter model and rumour spreading. We show (1) a martingale that describes the probability of consensus for a given colour, (2) bounds on the number of steps for the process to end using results from rumour spreading and voter models, (3) closed formulas for the probability of consensus in a few special cases, along with a polynomial-time algorithm for the case where the number of agnostic vertices is at most logarithmic and (4) that the computational complexity of estimating the probability with a Markov chain Monte Carlo process is $O(n^2 \log n)$ for general graphs and $O(n\log n)$ for Erdős-Rényi graphs, resulting in a fully polynomial-time randomized approximation scheme (FPRAS) for estimating the probabilities of consensus. Furthermore, we present experimental results suggesting that the number of runs needed for a given standard error decreases when the number of nodes increases.

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Marcelo Matheus Gauy, Anna Abramishvili, Eduardo Colli, Nicolaus Heuer, Tiago Madeira, Frederik Mallmann-Trenn, Vinícius Franco Vasconcelos, David Kohan Marzagão. 2026-05-11. Voter Model Meets Rumour Spreading: an FPRAS for Consensus Probabilities on Voter Models with Agnostic Nodes. https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.15029

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