Log-Periodic Precursors to Volcanic Eruptions: Evidence from 34 Events

Qinghua Lei; Didier Sornette

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arXiv · 2502.21277

Log-Periodic Precursors to Volcanic Eruptions: Evidence from 34 Events

Qinghua Lei·Didier Sornette

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Abstract

Forecasting volcanic eruptions remains a formidable challenge due to the inherent complexity and variability of volcanic processes. A key source of uncertainty arises from the sporadic nature of volcanic unrest, which is often characterised by intermittent phases of quiescent deceleration and sudden acceleration, rather than a consistent, predictable progression towards eruption. This seemingly erratic pattern complicates volcano forecasting as it challenges conventional time-to-failure models that often assume a simple smooth power law acceleration. We propose a log-periodic power law singularity model, which effectively captures the intermittent and non-monotonic rupture dynamics characteristic of reawakening volcanoes at the site scale. Mathematically, generalising the power law exponent by extending it from real to complex numbers, this model captures the partial break of continuous scale invariance to discrete scale invariance that is inherent to the intermittent dynamics of damage and rupture processes in heterogeneous crustal systems. By performing parametric and nonparametric tests on a large dataset of 34 historical eruptions worldwide, we present empirical evidence and theoretical arguments demonstrating the statistical significance of log-periodic oscillations decorating power law finite-time singularities during pre-eruptive volcanic unrest. Log-periodicity in volcanoes may originate from various mechanisms, including diffusion-dominated magma flow, magma-driven propagation of subparallel dykes, interaction between stress drop and stress corrosion, and/or interplay of inertia, damage, and healing within volcanic systems. Our results have important implications for volcano forecasting, because understanding and characterising log-periodicity could turn the intermittency of volcanic activity from a challenge into a valuable asset for improving predictions.

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Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette. 2025-02-28. Log-Periodic Precursors to Volcanic Eruptions: Evidence from 34 Events. https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.21277

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