A modeling framework to support the electrification of private transport in African cities: a case study of Addis Ababa

Abstract

The electrification of road transport, as the predominant mode of transportation in Africa, represents a great opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on costly fuel imports. However, it introduces major challenges for local energy infrastructures, including the deployment of charging stations and the impact on often fragile electricity grids. Despite its importance, research on electric mobility planning in Africa remains limited, while existing planning tools rely on detailed local mobility data that is often unavailable, especially for privately owned passenger vehicles. In this study, we introduce a novel framework designed to support private vehicle electrification in data-scarce regions and apply it to Addis Ababa, simulating the mobility patterns and charging needs of 100,000 electric vehicles. Our analysis indicate that these vehicles generate a daily charging demand of approximately 350 MWh and emphasize the significant influence of the charging location on the spatial and temporal distribution of this demand. Notably, charging at public places can help smooth the charging demand throughout the day, mitigating peak charging loads on the electricity grid. We also estimate charging station requirements, finding that workplace charging requires approximately one charging point per three electric vehicles, while public charging requires only one per thirty. Finally, we demonstrate that photovoltaic energy can cover a substantial share of the charging needs, emphasizing the potential for renewable energy integration. This study lays the groundwork for electric mobility planning in Addis Ababa while offering a transferable framework for other African cities.