Early signs of stuck pipe detection based on Crossformer

Abstract

Stuck pipe incidents are one of the major challenges in drilling engineering,leading to massive time loss and additional costs.To address the limitations of insufficient long sequence modeling capability,the difficulty in accurately establishing warning threshold,and the lack of model interpretability in existing methods,we utilize Crossformer for early signs of detection indicating potential stuck events in order to provide guidance for on-site drilling engineers and prevent stuck pipe incidents.The sliding window technique is integrated into Crossformer to allow it to output and display longer outputs,the improved Crossformer model is trained using normal time series drilling data to generate predictions for various parameters at each time step.The relative reconstruction error of model is regard as the risk of stuck pipe,thereby considering data that the model can't predict as anomalies,which represent the early signs of stuck pipe incidents.The multi-step prediction capability of Crossformer and relative reconstruction error are combined to assess stuck pipe risk at each time step in advance.We partition the reconstruction error into modeling error and error due to anomalous data fluctuations,furthermore,the dynamic warning threshold and warning time for stuck pipe incidents are determined using the probability density function of reconstruction errors from normal drilling data.The results indicate that our method can effectively detect early signs of stuck pipe incidents during the drilling process.Crossformer exhibits superior modeling and predictive capabilities compared with other deep learning models.Transformer-based models with multi-step prediction capability are more suitable for stuck pipe prediction compared to the current single-step prediction models.