A Foundational Individual Mobility Prediction Model based on Open-Source Large Language Models

Abstract

Individual mobility prediction plays a key role in urban transport, enabling personalized service recommendations and effective travel management. It is widely modeled by data-driven methods such as machine learning, deep learning, as well as classical econometric methods to capture key features of mobility patterns. However, such methods are hindered in promoting further transferability and robustness due to limited capacity to learn mobility patterns from different data sources, predict in out-of-distribution settings (a.k.a ``zero-shot"). To address this challenge, this paper introduces MoBLLM, a foundational model for individual mobility prediction that aims to learn a shared and transferable representation of mobility behavior across heterogeneous data sources. Based on a lightweight open-source large language model (LLM), MoBLLM employs Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques to create a cost-effective training pipeline, avoiding the need for large-scale GPU clusters while maintaining strong performance. We conduct extensive experiments on six real-world mobility datasets to evaluate its accuracy, robustness, and transferability across varying temporal scales (years), spatial contexts (cities), and situational conditions (e.g., disruptions and interventions). MoBLLM achieves the best F1 score and accuracy across all datasets compared with state-of-the-art deep learning models and shows better transferability and cost efficiency than commercial LLMs. Further experiments reveal its robustness under network changes, policy interventions, special events, and incidents. These results indicate that MoBLLM provides a generalizable modeling foundation for individual mobility behavior, enabling more reliable and adaptive personalized information services for transportation management.