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arXiv · 2503.16809

Online Selective Conformal Prediction: Errors and Solutions

Yusuf Sale·Aaditya Ramdas
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Abstract

In online selective conformal inference, data arrives sequentially, and prediction intervals are constructed only when an online selection rule is met. Since online selections may break the exchangeability between the selected test datum and the rest of the data, one must correct for this by suitably selecting the calibration data. In this paper, we evaluate existing calibration selection strategies and pinpoint some fundamental errors in the associated claims that guarantee selection-conditional coverage and control of the false coverage rate (FCR). To address these shortcomings, we propose novel calibration selection strategies that provably preserve the exchangeability of the calibration data and the selected test datum. Consequently, we demonstrate that online selective conformal inference with these strategies guarantees both selection-conditional coverage and FCR control. Our theoretical findings are supported by experimental evidence examining tradeoffs between valid methods.

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Yusuf Sale, Aaditya Ramdas. 2025-03-21. Online Selective Conformal Prediction: Errors and Solutions. https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.16809

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