Probabilistic Net Load Forecasting for High-Penetration RES Grids Utilizing Enhanced Conditional Diffusion Model

Abstract

The proliferation of intermittent distributed renewable energy sources (RES) in modern power systems has fundamentally compromised the reliability and accuracy of deterministic net load forecasting. Generative models, particularly diffusion models, demonstrate exceptional potential in uncertainty quantification for scenario forecasting. Nevertheless, their probabilistic predictive capabilities and conditional bootstrapping mechanisms still remain underexplored. In this paper, a day-ahead probabilistic net load forecasting framework is developed by systematically quantifying epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric variability using the feature-informed enhanced conditional diffusion model (ECDM). The ECDM architecture implements the net load distribution generation process using an imputation-based conditional diffusion model, where multi-modal conditional inputs, such as weather and calendar data, are fused via cross-attention mechanisms. Specifically, historical net load profiles are utilized to guide the reverse diffusion trajectory through non-parametric imputation operators preserving spatial-temporal integrity. To capture periodic characteristics, a novel weekly arrangement method is also introduced, while an unconditional model is integrated to ensure diversity in the generated scenarios. Subsequently, the maximum probabilistic points and probability intervals of predicted net load are obtained by the adaptive kernel density estimation under RES intermittency. Moreover, ECDM is extented to multi-energy forecast framework, attempting to increase interpretability of the net load predictions. Numerical experiments on a publicly available dataset demonstrate the superior forecasting performance of the proposed method compared to existing state-of-the-art approaches.