Labor Market Impact on Homelessness: Evidence from Canadian Administrative Data on Shelter Usage

Abstract

The overwhelming majority of homeless individuals are jobless, despite many expressing a willingness to work. While this strong individual-level link between homelessness and unemployment is well-documented, the broader impact of labor market dynamics on homelessness remains largely unexplored. To fill this gap, this paper investigates the impact of local labor market conditions on the duration of homelessness, using individuals' homeless shelter usage records as a proxy for measuring their homelessness duration. Specifically, drawing on Canada's National Homelessness Information System data from 2014 to 2017, we analyze how local employment growth and changes in the local employment rate affect shelter usage duration. Our findings reveal that a 1% increase in local employment is associated with a 0.11-quarter (approximately 0.33-month) reduction in the average duration of shelter usage, while a 1% rise in the local employment rate leads to a 0.34-quarter (approximately 1.02-month) reduction. These changes correspond to decreases of 2.9% and 8.9%, respectively, in the average duration of shelter stays. The findings underscore the critical role of employment opportunities in reducing homelessness and lend support to job-oriented policy interventions for the homeless. In addition, the results suggest that demographic disparities-particularly the overrepresentation of Indigenous people and men among the homeless-are partially explained by slower exit rates from homelessness within these groups.