Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2503.23914

Scenarios for the Deployment of Automated Vehicles in Europe

Louison Duboz·Ioan Cristinel Raileanu·Jette Krause·Ana Norman-López·Matthias Weitzel·Biagio Ciuffo
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The deployment of Automated Vehicles (AVs) is expected to address road transport externalities (e.g., safety, traffic, environmental impact, etc.). For this reason, a legal framework for their large-scale market introduction and deployment is currently being developed in the European Union. Despite the first steps towards road transport automation, the timeline for full automation and its potential economic benefits remains uncertain. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it presents a methodological framework to determine deployment pathways of the five different levels of automation in EU27+UK to 2050 under three scenarios (i.e., slow, medium baseline and fast) focusing on passenger vehicles. Second, it proposes an assessment of the economic impact of AVs through the calculation of the value-added. The method to define assumptions and uptake trajectories involves a comprehensive literature review, expert interviews, and a model to forecast the new registrations of different levels of automation. In this way, the interviews provided insights that complemented the literature and informed the design of assumptions and deployment trajectories. The added-value assessment shows additional economic activity due to the introduction of automated technologies in all uptake scenarios.

Explore related subjects

econ.GNq-fin.EC

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Louison Duboz, Ioan Cristinel Raileanu, Jette Krause, Ana Norman-López, Matthias Weitzel, Biagio Ciuffo. 2025-03-31. Scenarios for the Deployment of Automated Vehicles in Europe. https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.23914

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Access to Live AI Advice and Behavior Under Risk: An Incentivized Experiment

Generative AI has become an everyday advisor, and the systems people consult are live and interactive, not pre-scripted. We ask whether access to such a system changes behavior under risk. In an incentivized experiment (N = 158), participants made lottery choices with an optional decision aid presented as a conventional pre-written tool, a live one-shot AI, or a live interactive AI they could query, with information format held equivalent across conditions. Risk preferences are elicited via DOSE. We find no evidence that access to a live AI advisor changes risk aversion.

econ.GN↗
arXiv2026

Bricks or Cash? Externalities of Housing Upgrading in High-density Cities

We estimate housing externalities in a high-density city, exploiting the staggered rollout of Singapore's nationwide Main Upgrading Programme for public housing. Controlling for nonrandom neighborhood exposure, we find that upgrading raises treated buildings' prices by 11.5% upon completion and neighboring buildings' resale prices by about 2% within 500 meters, decaying to zero beyond. A model with distance-decaying externalities shows that in dense settings spillovers justify the distortions of in-kind provision; this advantage diminishes and reverses at lower densities. Administrative data on over 2 million residents show that upgrading disproportionately retains older incumbents, suggesting age-specific amenities as an underexplored externality channel.

econ.GN↗
arXiv2026

The Joneses Visit an Economics Lab

Existing literature offers persuasive evidence that individuals care about how their consumption compares to that of peers, and proposes a large variety of explanatory models. The present paper proposes a common framework for many of those models, and compares their ability to predict behavior in a laboratory experiment. We find evidence of Keeping up with the Joneses motivations but also find that conspicuous consumption is enhanced by Veblen motivations arising from peers' ability to observe one's own choice. Among the seven quasi-linear preference models we compare, our data are best explained by a model that contrasts envy and pride (upward vs downward comparisons) using a value function borrowed from Prospect Theory.

econ.GN↗