Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2504.02818

Instance-Log-Optimality of Portfolio-Based E-Processes and their Sequential Hypothesis Tests

Ian Waudby-Smith·Ricardo J. Sandoval·Michael I. Jordan
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

We consider the problem of sequential hypothesis testing using $e$-processes. For a rich class of composite testing problems---which include bounded mean testing, equal mean testing for bounded random tuples, and some key ingredients of two-sample and independence testing as special cases---we show that any $e$-process satisfying a certain sublinear regret bound is asymptotically and almost surely instance-log-optimal for a composite alternative. This is a strong notion of optimality that has not previously been established for the aforementioned problems, and we provide explicit test supermartingales and $e$-processes satisfying this notion in a more general case. Furthermore, we derive matching lower and upper bounds on the expected rejection time in the high-confidence regime for the resulting sequential tests in all of these cases. The proofs of these results make weak, algorithm-agnostic moment assumptions and rely on a proof technique involving the aforementioned regret and a family of numeraire portfolios. Finally, we discuss how all of these theorems hold in a distribution-uniform sense, a notion of log-optimality that is stronger still and seems to be new to the literature.

Explore related subjects

math.STstat.MEstat.TH

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Ian Waudby-Smith, Ricardo J. Sandoval, Michael I. Jordan. 2026-09-14. Instance-Log-Optimality of Portfolio-Based E-Processes and their Sequential Hypothesis Tests. https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.02818

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Functional independent component analysis by choice of norm: a framework for near-perfect classification

We develop a theory for functional independent component analysis in an infinite-dimensional framework using Sobolev spaces that accommodate smoother functions. The notion of penalized kurtosis is introduced motivated by Silverman's method for smoothing principal components. This approach allows for a classical definition of independent components obtained via projection onto the eigenfunctions of a smoothed kurtosis operator mapping a whitened functional random variable. We discuss the theoretical properties of this operator in relation to a generalized Fisher discriminant function and the relationship it entails with the Feldman-Hájek dichotomy for Gaussian measures, both of which are critical to the principles of functional classification. The proposed estimators are a particularly competitive alternative in binary classification of functional data and can eventually achieve the so-called near-perfect classification, which is a genuine phenomenon of high-dimensional data. Our methods are illustrated through simulations, various real datasets, and used to model electroencephalographic biomarkers for the diagnosis of depressive disorder.

math.ST↗
arXiv2026

Trace-Class Results for MCMC Algorithms for Student-$t$ Regression Models

In this paper, we consider MCMC algorithms for Student-$t$ regression models. In three cases, we investigate the efficiency of Markov chains based on the algorithms in terms of whether trace-class results hold or not. First, we consider the case where the parameters follow a matrix-normal-inverse-Wishart distribution and show that the Markov operator associated with a standard data augmentation algorithm is trace-class. Second, we consider the case of an improper prior and univariate outcomes. In this case, the standard Markov operator is not trace-class but the Markov operator associated with a collapsed Gibbs algorithm is trace-class. Third, we consider the case of an improper prior and multivariate outcomes. We obtain a trace-class result for a parameter expanded data augmentation algorithm which is based on a univariate working parameter. Finally, we consider the problem of numerially estimating a convergence rate of the trace-class Markov operator in the second case.

math.ST↗
arXiv2026

The Manifold Hypothesis under Unknown Gaussian Noise:Conditional Certificates and Consistent Dimension Estimation

We study what noisy data can establish about the Manifold Hypothesis under explicit identification and regularity conditions. A population residual certificate combines independent-view localization, Gaussian concentration, membership uncertainty, and population transfer. Existing rectifiability criteria then yield a covered-scale consequence. For a local smooth manifold with positive Hölder density, the actual-ball covariance limit identifies the spectral crossing with geometric dimension. We prove almost-sure eventual recovery under repeated observations. Reusing accurate localization averages improves the sufficient point-sample condition from $Nr^{d+4}\gg\log N$ to $Nr^d\gg\log N$, with replication $kr^2\gg\log N$. A two-mass certificate controls incorrect geometric-dimension emissions under declared class bounds. For single observations with unknown Gaussian noise, affine-support or known coordinate-bound restrictions provide noise intervals and consistent Gaussian correlation-dimension estimators. Ahlfors regularity identifies this exponent with Hausdorff dimension and with the geometric dimension of a homogeneous smooth class. Exact Cantor calculations delineate the limits of integer spectral counts and adjacent-radius slopes. We credit established local PCA, rectifiability, concentration, binomial inference, and deconvolution results before specifying our constructions. Reproducible experiments distinguish point estimation, finite-scale coverage, and certificate emission.

math.ST↗