Discovering Partially Known Ordinary Differential Equations: a Case Study on the Chemical Kinetics of Cellulose Degradation

Federica Bragone; Kateryna Morozovska; Tor Laneryd; Khemraj Shukla; Stefano Markidis

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arXiv · 2504.03484

Discovering Partially Known Ordinary Differential Equations: a Case Study on the Chemical Kinetics of Cellulose Degradation

Federica Bragone·Kateryna Morozovska·Tor Laneryd·Khemraj Shukla·Stefano Markidis

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Abstract

The degree of polymerization (DP) is one of the methods for estimating the aging of the polymer based insulation systems, such as cellulose insulation in power components. The main degradation mechanisms in polymers are hydrolysis, pyrolysis, and oxidation. These mechanisms combined cause a reduction of the DP. However, the data availability for these types of problems is usually scarce. This study analyzes insulation aging using cellulose degradation data from power transformers. The aging problem for the cellulose immersed in mineral oil inside power transformers is modeled with ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We recover the governing equations of the degradation system using Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) and symbolic regression. We apply PINNs to discover the Arrhenius equation's unknown parameters in the Ekenstam ODE describing cellulose contamination content and the material aging process related to temperature for synthetic data and real DP values. A modification of the Ekenstam ODE is given by Emsley's system of ODEs, where the rate constant expressed by the Arrhenius equation decreases in time with the new formulation. We use PINNs and symbolic regression to recover the functional form of one of the ODEs of the system and to identify an unknown parameter.

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Federica Bragone, Kateryna Morozovska, Tor Laneryd, Khemraj Shukla, Stefano Markidis. 2025-04-04. Discovering Partially Known Ordinary Differential Equations: a Case Study on the Chemical Kinetics of Cellulose Degradation. https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.03484

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