Epicast 2.0: A large-scale, demographically detailed, agent-based model for simulating respiratory pathogen spread in the United States

Prescott C. Alexander; Thomas J. Harris; Joy Kitson; Joseph V. Tuccillo; Sara Y. Del Valle; Timothy C. Germann

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arXiv · 2504.03604

Epicast 2.0: A large-scale, demographically detailed, agent-based model for simulating respiratory pathogen spread in the United States

Prescott C. Alexander·Thomas J. Harris·Joy Kitson·Joseph V. Tuccillo·Sara Y. Del Valle·Timothy C. Germann

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Abstract

The recent history of respiratory pathogen epidemics, including those caused by influenza and SARS-CoV-2, has highlighted the urgent need for advanced modeling approaches that can accurately capture heterogeneous disease dynamics and outcomes at the national scale, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of resource allocation and decision-making. In this paper, we describe Epicast 2.0, an agent-based model that utilizes a highly detailed, synthetic population and high-performance computing techniques to simulate respiratory pathogen transmission across the entire United States. This model replicates the contact patterns of over 320 million agents as they engage in daily activities at school, work, and within their communities. Epicast 2.0 supports vaccination and an array of non-pharmaceutical interventions that can be promoted or relaxed via highly granular, user specified policies. We illustrate the model's capabilities using a wide range of outbreak scenarios, highlighting the model's varied dynamics as well as its extensive support for policy exploration. This model provides a robust platform for conducting what if scenario analysis and providing insights into potential strategies for mitigating the impacts of infectious diseases.

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Prescott C. Alexander, Thomas J. Harris, Joy Kitson, Joseph V. Tuccillo, Sara Y. Del Valle, Timothy C. Germann. 2025-04-04. Epicast 2.0: A large-scale, demographically detailed, agent-based model for simulating respiratory pathogen spread in the United States. https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.03604

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