Unveiling faint X-ray AGN populations in the NewAthena era: Insights from cosmological simulations

Abstract

Recent observations expanded our understanding of galaxy formation and evolution, yet key challenges persist in the X-ray regime, crucial for studying Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). These limitations drive the development of next-generation observatories such as ESA's NewAthena. Now in phase B (preliminary design), the mission requires extensive testing to ensure compliance with its scientific goals, particularly given the uncertainties surrounding high redshift AGN. This work leverages the IllustrisTNG cosmological simulation to build an X-ray AGN mock catalogue and assess the performance of NewAthena's WFI. We created a Super Massive Black Hole (SMBH) light cone, spanning 10 deg2, with corrections to account for the limited resolution of the simulation and X-ray properties derived in post-processing. The resulting catalogue reveals a 5* overabundance of faint AGN compared to current X-ray constraints, an inconsistency potentially resolved by invoking a higher Compton-thick (CTK) fraction and intrinsic X-ray weakness, as suggested by recent JWST findings. An end-to-end survey simulation using SIXTE predicts 250000 AGN detections, including 20,000 at z > 3 and 35 in the Epoch of Reionization (z > 6); notably, only AGN with LX > 43.5 erg/s are detectable at z > 6. The analysis also forecasts a significant population of detectable CTK AGN, even beyond z > 4. These findings suggest X-ray observations will, for the first time, probe a significant AGN population in the EoR, offering new insights into SMBH growth. They also provide key input for refining NewAthena's mission design and optimizing its survey strategy.