Uncertainty modeling method for wind and solar power output in building integrated energy systems under continuous anomalous weather

Abstract

The increasing occurrence of continuous anomalous weather events has intensified the uncertainty in wind and photovoltaic power generation, posing significant challenges to the operation and optimization of building integrated energy systems. Existing studies often neglect the interdependence between successive anomalous weather events and their collective impact on wind and solar power output. Additionally, conventional modeling approaches struggle to accurately capture the nonlinear fluctuations induced by these weather conditions. To address this gap, this study proposes an uncertainty modeling method based on stochastic optimization and scenario generation. The Weibull and Beta distributions characterize the probabilistic properties of wind speed and solar irradiance, respectively, while the Copula function captures the dependence between wind speed and precipitation, enabling the construction of a wind-solar power uncertainty model that incorporates the joint distribution of consecutive anomalous weather events. A Monte Carlo-based scenario generation approach is employed to construct a dataset representing anomalous weather characteristics, followed by a probabilistic distance-based scenario reduction technique to enhance modeling efficiency. Furthermore, the unscented transformation method is introduced to mitigate nonlinear propagation errors in wind and solar power state estimation. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed method effectively characterizes the fluctuation patterns of wind and solar power under continuous anomalous weather conditions while preserving the statistical properties of the original data. These findings provide a reliable basis for improving the operational resilience of building integrated energy systems under extreme weather scenarios.