Robust Covariate Adjustment in Multi-Center Randomized Trials

Muluneh Alene; Stijn Vansteelandt; Kelly Van Lancker

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arXiv · 2504.12760

Robust Covariate Adjustment in Multi-Center Randomized Trials

Muluneh Alene·Stijn Vansteelandt·Kelly Van Lancker

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Abstract

Augmented inverse probability weighting and G-computation with canonical generalized linear models have become increasingly popular for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in randomized experiments. These methods leverage outcome prediction models to adjust for imbalances in baseline covariates across treatment arms, improving power compared to unadjusted analyses, while controlling Type I error, even when models are misspecified. In multi-center trials they are often implemented without accounting for clustering by centers. We investigate how ignoring center-level correlation can impair estimation, degrade coverage of confidence intervals, and obscure interpretation. We find these issues to be especially acute for estimators of counterfactual means, as shown through simulations and clarified via theoretical arguments. To address these challenges, we develop semiparametric efficient estimators of counterfactual means and ATE defined for a randomly sampled center and patient. These estimators leverage outcome prediction models to improve efficiency yet retain large-sample unbiasedness under model misspecification. We further introduce an inference framework, inspired by random-effects meta-analysis, tailored to settings with many small centers. Incorporating center effects into the prediction models yields substantial efficiency gains, particularly when treatment effects vary across centers. Simulations and application to the WASH Benefits Bangladesh trial illustrate strong finite-sample performance of the proposed methods.

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BibTeX RIS

Muluneh Alene, Stijn Vansteelandt, Kelly Van Lancker. 2026-08-14. Robust Covariate Adjustment in Multi-Center Randomized Trials. https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.12760

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