Goldbach Conjecture: Violation Probability and Generalization to Prime-like Distributions

Abstract

Due to the distribution of primes among integers, we establish an upper bound for the probability $\mathbb{P}_n$ that the Goldbach conjecture fails. Assuming the conjecture holds true for all even number less than $2N$, we prove this probability is less than $e^{-N^α}$, where $ α= 1 - \frac{2\ln\ln N}{\ln N}$. For large $N$, this probability becomes vanishingly small, effectively precluding the existence of counterexamples in practice. If $N =4 \times 10^{18}$, the probability of a counterexample is less than $e^{-10^{15}}$. Our approach fundamentally depends on the distributional properties of primes rather than their primality per se. This perspective enables a natural generalization of the conjecture to non-prime subsets of integers that exhibit similar distributional characteristics. As a concrete example, we construct new subsets by applying random $\pm 1$ shifts to primes, which preserve the essential prime-like distributional properties. Computational verification confirms that this generalized Goldbach conjecture holds for all even integers up to $2 \times 10^{8}$ within these modified subsets.