Data-Driven Evolutionary Game-Based Model Predictive Control for Hybrid Renewable Energy Dispatch in Autonomous Ships

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a data-driven Evolutionary Game-Based Model Predictive Control (EG-MPC) framework for the energy dispatch of a hybrid renewable energy system powering an autonomous ship. The system integrates solar photovoltaic and wind turbine generation with battery energy storage and diesel backup power to ensure reliable operation. Given the uncertainties in renewable generation and dynamic energy demands, an optimal dispatch strategy is crucial to minimize operational costs while maintaining system reliability. To address these challenges, we formulate a cost minimization problem that considers both battery degradation costs and diesel fuel expenses, leveraging real-world data to enhance modeling accuracy. The EG-MPC approach integrates evolutionary game dynamics within a receding-horizon optimization framework, enabling adaptive and near-optimal control solutions in real time. Simulation results based on site-specific data demonstrate that the proposed method achieves cost-effective, reliable, and adaptive energy dispatch, outperforming conventional rule-based and standard MPC approaches, particularly under uncertainty.