Search arXivSearch

arXiv · 2504.16307

Schelling segregation dynamics in densely-connected social network graphs

Abstract

Schelling segregation is a well-established model used to investigate the dynamics of segregation in agent-based models. Since we consider segregation to be key for the development of political polarisation, we are interested in what insights it could give for this problem. We tested basic questions of segregation on an agent-based social network model where agents' connections were not restricted by their spatial position, and made the network graph much denser than previous tests of Schelling segregation in social networks. We found that a dense social network does not become as strongly segregated as a sparse network, and that agents' numbers of same-group neighbours do not greatly exceed their desired numbers (i.e. they do not end up more segregated than they desire to be). Furthermore, we found that the network was very difficult to polarise when one group was somewhat smaller than the other, and that the network became unstable when one group was extremely small; both phenomena may help explain the complexity of real-world polarisation dynamics, such as unique risks faced by very small group sin a society. Finally we tested Fossett's (2006) "paradox of weak minority preferences", a well-established result in grid- and map-based models which shows that an increase in the minority group's desire for same-group neighbours can create more segregation than a similar increase for the majority group. In a densely connected social network, we find that the evidence for this effect is mixed.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Sage Anastasi, Giulio Dalla Riva. 2025-06-25. Schelling segregation dynamics in densely-connected social network graphs. https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.16307

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Empirical Trajectory Sparsity Biases Mobility-Informed Epidemic Modeling

GPS mobility data are increasingly used in epidemic modeling, allowing the construction of co-location networks or population flows. These trajectories typically exhibit high temporal sparsity because data collection is opportunistic and tied to phone use. Despite growing awareness of this limitation, the analysis and treatment of biases derived from it have been largely overlooked in existing epidemic modeling studies, raising concerns about the robustness of downstream inferences. We introduce a principled framework to quantify the impact of trajectory sparsity on key epidemic modeling outcomes across different levels of data missingness. Our approach leverages a highly complete dataset that exhibits both near-complete and sparse GPS trajectories. Near-complete trajectories provide baseline epidemic outcomes, while sparse trajectories provide realistic missingness patterns that we impose on the baseline to measure bias. In this way, we show how missing records can result in substantial underestimation of key measures of epidemic intensity, explained not only by the amount of missing data, but by more complex features of data missingness that should be taken into account when designing correction methods. Finally, we propose and evaluate a correction based on inverse probability weighting of the contact network before epidemic model calibration, which is shown to reduce bias and parameter misspecification. We also demonstrate this correction on a separate anonymized sample from a commercial GPS mobility dataset and report on its effect. Together, our findings provide a first rigorous quantification of trajectory-sparsity bias in epidemic modeling, offering initial guidance on the treatment of this issue.

cs.SI

Threat Amplified, Blame Restrained: LLM-Assisted Media Framing Analysis of the 2026 Bangladesh Measles Outbreak

How news media frame and emotionally code a public health emergency shapes public risk perception and trust, yet outbreak-coverage dynamics remain understudied for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We examine sentiment and stance in English-language Bangladeshi coverage of the 2026 measles outbreak -- the country's most severe in two decades, with over 97,000 suspected cases and 600 deaths across 61 of 64 districts, unfolding after the 2024 change of government and a 2024-2025 vaccine stockout. Using the Internet Archive, we build a reproducible corpus of 403 headlines from seven national outlets (396 in-window in 2026), label them for binary sentiment and four-way stance via a large language model under a locked codebook, and validate against a two-coder human-adjudicated gold standard (n=153; Cohen's kappa=0.89 stance, 0.75 sentiment). Aligned to the DGHS epidemic curve, coverage grew significantly more negative (56% to 88% negative; Cochran-Armitage z=4.12, p<.001) and risk-amplification framing intensified (44% to 84%; z=4.15, p<.001). Media negativity lagged incidence, tracking cumulative mortality. Contrary to the political backdrop, blame remained a minority frame (~9% overall) and was overwhelmingly systemic (32 of 37, 86%) rather than directed at named actors. The pipeline offers a scalable, transparent method for LMIC outbreak-media analysis; Bangladeshi coverage amplified threat far more than it assigned political blame.

cs.SI

OranSim: Simulating Social Media Marketing

Social simulation studies how individual behavior and social interaction produce collective outcomes. In social media marketing, campaign actions shape which consumers encounter the content and how they respond; these responses then spread through the population. We propose OranSim, a social simulation framework that connects creative, creator, targeting, and budget choices to this process. Heterogeneous consumers receive exposure according to content matching and platform allocation and generate initial responses, which propagate among 60 population segments. Candidate campaigns share the initial population and aligned random numbers, making their response trajectories comparable under action changes. In a controlled synthetic campaign, doubling the budget approximately doubles reach while lowering mean content match and engagement probability among the reached consumers; mean 14-day cumulative simulated response mass rises to 1.96 times the baseline. LightGBM predictors fitted to 39,000 historical RedNote notes estimate platform engagement with log-scale $R^2$ of 0.56--0.62 in five-fold cross-validation; a separate 12,154-note corpus supplies temporal, unseen-creator, and held-out-niche test splits. Public-data experiments evaluate policy value and audience ranking, and paired synthetic outcomes test counterfactual scoring. Together, scenario trajectories and engagement estimates support campaign selection according to a prespecified marketing objective. Code is available at https://github.com/OranAi-Ltd/oransim.

cs.SI