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arXiv · 2505.07662

Excess risk of heat-related hospitalization associated with temperature and PM2.5 among older adults

Lauren Mock·Rachel C. Nethery·Poonam Gandhi·Ashwaghosha Parthasarathi·Melanie Rua·David Robinson·Soko Setoguchi·Kevin Josey
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Abstract

Background: With rising temperatures and an aging population, understanding how to prevent heat-related illness among older adults will be increasingly crucial. Despite biological plausibility, no study to date has investigated whether fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) contributes to the risk of hospitalization with a diagnosis code indicating heat-related illness, referred to as heat-related hospitalization. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating the independent and combined effects of temperature and PM2.5 on heat-related hospitalization risk. Methods: We identified Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries in the contiguous United States who experienced a heat-related hospitalization between 2008 and 2016. Using a case-crossover design and Bayesian conditional logistic regression, we characterized the associations of temperature and PM2.5 with heat-related hospitalization. We then estimated the relative excess risk due to interaction to quantify the additive interaction of simultaneous exposure to heat and PM2.5. Results: We observed 112,969 heat-related hospitalizations. Fixing PM2.5 at the case day median, the odds ratio for increasing temperature from its case day median to the 95th percentile was 1.05 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.06). Fixing temperature at the case day median, the odds ratio for increasing PM2.5 from its median to the 95th percentile was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.04). The relative excess risk due to interaction for simultaneous median-to-95th percentile increases in temperature and PM2.5 was 0.03 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.06). Conclusions: Our study is the first to observe synergism between temperature and PM2.5 associated with the risk of heat-related hospitalization. These findings highlight the importance of considering air pollution in effective public health and clinical interventions to prevent heat-related illness.

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Lauren Mock, Rachel C. Nethery, Poonam Gandhi, Ashwaghosha Parthasarathi, Melanie Rua, David Robinson, Soko Setoguchi, Kevin Josey. 2026-02-12. Excess risk of heat-related hospitalization associated with temperature and PM2.5 among older adults. https://doi.org/10.1097/ee9.0000000000000451

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