An outlook on the Rapid Decline of Carbon Sequestration in French Forests and associated reporting needs

P . Ciais; C. Zhou; P . Schneider; M. Schwartz; N. Besic; C. Vega; J. -D. Bontemps

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arXiv · 2505.11512

An outlook on the Rapid Decline of Carbon Sequestration in French Forests and associated reporting needs

P . Ciais·C. Zhou·P . Schneider·M. Schwartz·N. Besic·C. Vega·J. -D. Bontemps

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Abstract

In this study, we present and discuss changes in carbon storage in the French forests from 1990 to 2022, derived from CITEPA statistics on forest carbon accounting, fed by National Forest Inventory (NFI) data collected through an extensive network of measurement sites across Metropolitan France, and other data sources as regards forest removals. The NFI is designed to provide statistical estimations of growing stock, gains and losses at the national or subnational levels but is unable, in its classical form, to provide detailed spatial outlook, such as on abrupt losses during fires, droughts and insect attacks. A continuing removal of CO2 from the atmosphere by the French forests occurred from 1990 to 2022, because harvest and mortality CO2 losses remained smaller than CO2 removals by forest growth and the increase in forest area (70,000 ha per year but insignificant in terms of increased carbon stocks at present). The CO2 removal by forests was 49.3 MtCO2 yr-1 in 1990, increased to reach a peak of 74.1 MtCO2 yr-1 in 2008 and then quickly decreased down to 37.8 Mton CO2 yr-1 in 2022. After 2017, the sink remained low and mortality rates stayed larger than during any of the previous years. This recent period is marked by climate shocks such as summer droughts and heatwaves in 2015, 2018, 2022, 2023. The full impacts of the droughts in 2022 and 2023 are not yet covered with full precision, as some of the sites measured by the national inventory before those droughts are still pending a second visit. The different regions of France show contrasted trajectories. Southern Mediterranean regions where forests have a low harvest rate have experienced a lower increase in mortality and a sustained CO2 uptake.

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P . Ciais, C. Zhou, P . Schneider, M. Schwartz, N. Besic, C. Vega, J. -D. Bontemps. 2025-05-03. An outlook on the Rapid Decline of Carbon Sequestration in French Forests and associated reporting needs. https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.11512

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