Branch lengths for geodesics in the directed landscape and mutation patterns in growing spatially structured populations

Abstract

Consider a population that is expanding in two-dimensional space. Suppose we collect data from a sample of individuals taken at random either from the entire population, or from near the outer boundary of the population. A quantity of interest in population genetics is the site frequency spectrum, which is the number of mutations that appear on $k$ of the $n$ sampled individuals, for $k = 1, \dots, n-1$. As long as the mutation rate is constant, this number will be roughly proportional to the total length of all branches in the genealogical tree that are on the ancestral line of $k$ sampled individuals. While the rigorous literature has primarily focused on models without any spatial structure, in many natural settings, such as tumors or bacteria colonies, growth is dictated by spatial constraints. Many such two dimensional growth models are expected to fall in the KPZ universality class. In this article we adopt the perspective that for population models in the KPZ universality class, the genealogical tree can be approximated by the tree formed by the infinite upward geodesics in the directed landscape, a universal scaling limit constructed in \cite{dov22}, starting from $n$ randomly chosen points. Relying on geodesic coalescence, we prove new asymptotic results for the lengths of the portions of these geodesics that are ancestral to $k$ of the $n$ sampled points and consequently obtain exponents driving the site frequency spectrum as predicted in \cite{fgkah16}. An important ingredient in the proof is a new tight estimate of the probability that three infinite upward geodesics stay disjoint up to time $t$, i.e., a sharp quantitative version of the well studied N3G problem, which is of independent interest.