Vector fields as a framework for modelling the mobility of commodities

Abstract

Commodities, including livestock, flow through trade networks globally, with trajectories that can be effectively captured using mobility pattern modelling approaches similar to those used in human mobility studies. However, documenting these movements comprehensively presents significant challenges; it can be unrealistic, costly, and may conflict with data protection regulations. As a result, mobility datasets typically contain uncertainties due to sparsity and limitations in data collection. Origin-destination (OD) representations offer a powerful framework for modelling movement patterns and are widely adopted in mobility studies. However, these matrices possess inherent limitations: locations absent from the OD framework lack spatial information on potential mobility directions and intensities. This spatial incompleteness creates analytical gaps across different geographical scales, constraining our ability to characterise movement patterns in underrepresented areas. In this study, we introduce a vector-field-based method to address these data challenges, transforming OD data into vector fields capturing spatial flow patterns comprehensively enabling us to study mobility directions solidly. We use cattle trade data from Minas Gerais, Brazil, as our case study for commodity flows. This region's large livestock trading network makes it an ideal test case. Cattle movements are significant as they affect disease transmission, including foot-and-mouth disease. Accurately modelling these flows allows better surveillance and control strategies. Our vector-field approach reveals fundamental patterns in commodity mobility and can infer movement information for unrepresented locations. Our approach offers an alternative to traditional network-based models, enhancing our capacity to infer mobility patterns from incomplete datasets and advancing our understanding of large-scale commodity trades.