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arXiv · 2506.23022

Predictive Analysis of Gmelina arborea (Melina) Growth in Plantations of Esmeraldas: A Perspective for Silvicultural Management in Tropical Ecuador

José Gabriel Carvajal Benavides·Hugo Orlando Paredes Rodríguez·Oscar Armando Rosales Enríquez·Eduardo Jaime Chagna Avila·Xavier Germán Valencia Valenzuela·Guillermo David Varela Jácome
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Abstract

This study presents a rigorous assessment of the growth performance of Gmelina arborea (melina) in a 67-hectare plantation located in Chontaduro, Tabiazo Parish, Esmeraldas, Ecuador. The plantation was established in 2017 under a high-density planting system (650 trees/ha). Permanent monitoring techniques were applied in 16 one-hectare plots to analyze structural growth variables, including survival rate, diameter at breast height (DBH), total height, commercial height, basal area, volume, and mean annual increment (MAI). The results show an average survival rate of 80.2%, with a mean DBH of 25.3 cm at five years, indicating sustained growth under favorable edaphoclimatic conditions. Volume was calculated using the equation V = G HT Ff, yielding average values of 183.262 m3 for total volume and 166.19 m3 for commercial volume. The estimated MAI for diameter and height was 5.06 cm/year and 3.61 m/year, respectively, with values comparable to studies conducted in other Ecuadorian sites, although lower productivity was observed in Esmeraldas, attributed to edaphic and climatic differences identified through soil type and environmental condition analyses. The research highlights the significant influence of edaphic conditions, silvicultural management, and environmental variables on the performance of Gmelina arborea in tropical Ecuador. The findings provide a foundation for optimizing forest management strategies and improving growth indicators in commercial plantations, contributing to the sustainable development of forest resources in the region and strengthening silvicultural planning based on predictive models tailored to local conditions. This study represents a step forward in the scientific assessment of melina growth under Ecuadorian conditions, promoting more precise and sustainable silvicultural practices

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José Gabriel Carvajal Benavides, Hugo Orlando Paredes Rodríguez, Oscar Armando Rosales Enríquez, Eduardo Jaime Chagna Avila, Xavier Germán Valencia Valenzuela, Guillermo David Varela Jácome. 2025-06-28. Predictive Analysis of Gmelina arborea (Melina) Growth in Plantations of Esmeraldas: A Perspective for Silvicultural Management in Tropical Ecuador. https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.23022

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