When Numbers Mislead Us

Arthur Charpentier

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arXiv · 2507.03628

When Numbers Mislead Us

Arthur Charpentier

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Abstract

The belief that numbers offer a single, objective description of reality overlooks a crucial truth: data does not speak for itself. Every dataset results from choices-what to measure, how, when, and with whom-which inevitably reflect implicit, and sometimes ideological, assumptions about what is worth quantifying. Moreover, in any analysis, what remains unmeasured can be just as significant as what is captured. When a key variable is omitted-whether by neglect, design, or ignorance-it can distort the observed relationships between other variables. This phenomenon, known as omitted variable bias, may produce misleading correlations or conceal genuine effects. In some cases, accounting for this hidden factor can completely overturn the conclusions drawn from a superficial analysis. This is precisely the mechanism behind Simpson's paradox.

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Arthur Charpentier. 2025-07-04. When Numbers Mislead Us. https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.03628

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