Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks for Short-term State Forecasting in Power Systems across Domains and Time Scales: A Hydroelectric Power Plant Case Study

Abstract

Accurate short-term state forecasting is essential for efficient and stable operation of modern power systems, especially in the context of increasing variability introduced by renewable and distributed energy resources. As these systems evolve rapidly, it becomes increasingly important to reliably predict their states in the short term to ensure operational stability, support control decisions, and enable interpretable monitoring of sensor and machine behavior. Modern power systems often span multiple physical domains - including electrical, mechanical, hydraulic, and thermal - posing significant challenges for modeling and prediction. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a promising data-driven framework for system state estimation and state forecasting in such settings. By leveraging the topological structure of sensor networks, GNNs can implicitly learn inter-sensor relationships and propagate information across the network. However, most existing GNN-based methods are designed under the assumption of homogeneous sensor relationships and are typically constrained to a single physical domain. This limitation restricts their ability to integrate and reason over heterogeneous sensor data commonly encountered in real-world energy systems, such as those used in energy conversion infrastructure. In this work, we propose the use of Heterogeneous Graph Attention Networks to address these limitations. Our approach models both homogeneous intra-domain and heterogeneous inter-domain relationships among sensor data from two distinct physical domains - hydraulic and electrical - which exhibit fundamentally different temporal dynamics. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms conventional baselines on average by 35.5% in terms of normalized root mean square error, confirming its effectiveness in multi-domain, multi-rate power system state forecasting.