Active Probing with Multimodal Predictions for Motion Planning

Abstract

Navigation in dynamic environments requires autonomous systems to reason about uncertainties in the behavior of other agents. In this paper, we introduce a unified framework that combines trajectory planning with multimodal predictions and active probing to enhance decision-making under uncertainty. We develop a novel risk metric that seamlessly integrates multimodal prediction uncertainties through mixture models. When these uncertainties follow a Gaussian mixture distribution, we prove that our risk metric admits a closed-form solution, and is always finite, thus ensuring analytical tractability. To reduce prediction ambiguity, we incorporate an active probing mechanism that strategically selects actions to improve its estimates of behavioral parameters of other agents, while simultaneously handling multimodal uncertainties. We extensively evaluate our framework in autonomous navigation scenarios using the MetaDrive simulation environment. Results demonstrate that our active probing approach successfully navigates complex traffic scenarios with uncertain predictions. Additionally, our framework shows robust performance across diverse traffic agent behavior models, indicating its broad applicability to real-world autonomous navigation challenges. Code and videos are available at https://darshangm.github.io/papers/active-probing-multimodal-predictions/.