Sample Variance Denoising in Cylindrical 21-cm Power Spectra

Abstract

State-of-the-art simulations of reionisation-era 21-cm signal have limited volumes, generally orders of magnitude smaller than observations. Consequently, the Fourier modes in common between simulation and observation have limited overlap, especially in cylindrical (2D) k-space that is natural for 21-cm interferometry. This makes sample variance (i.e. the deviation of the simulated sample from the population mean due to finite box size) a potential issue when interpreting upcoming 21-cm observations. We introduce \texttt{21cmPSDenoiser}, a score-based diffusion model that can be applied to a single, forward-modelled realisation of the 21-cm 2D power spectrum (PS), predicting the corresponding \textit{population mean} on-the-fly during Bayesian inference. Individual samples of 2D Fourier amplitudes of wave modes relevant to current 21-cm observations can deviate from the mean by over 50\% for 300 cMpc simulations, even when only considering stochasticity due to sampling of Gaussian initial conditions. \texttt{21cmPSDenoiser} reduces this deviation by an order of magnitude, outperforming current state-of-the-art sample variance mitigation techniques like Fixing \& Pairing by a factor of few at almost no additional computational cost ($\sim6$s per PS). Unlike emulators, the denoiser is not tied to a particular model or simulator since its input is a (model-agnostic) realisation of the 2D 21-cm PS. Indeed, we confirm that it generalises to PS produced with a different 21-cm simulator than those on which it was trained. To quantify the improvement in parameter recovery, we simulate a 21-cm PS detection by the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Arrays (HERA) and run different inference pipelines corresponding to commonly-used approximations. We find that using \texttt{21cmPSDenoiser} in the inference pipeline outperforms other approaches, yielding an unbiased posterior that is 50\% narrower.