Enumerating the technological viability and climate impact of jet electrification

Abstract

Enabling battery technology has not achieved sufficient maturity to facilitate electric flight for all aircraft models across all distances. Consequently, existing discourse emphasizes electrifying short haul routes using smaller, lighter aircraft. Does this emphasis have merit. We estimate a model that addresses this question. Our findings are fourfold. First, we find that current energy density limitations impede short haul electric flight, regardless of aircraft model utilized. Second, we document that electrifying smaller, lighter aircraft models serving short haul routes may be particularly challenging as these aircraft require more, not less, acute increases in energy density. Third, we identify a subset of larger, heavier aircraft as better candidates for electrification and note that doing so could prevent the annual release of significant amounts of carbon dioxide equivalent. However, we observe that the regional benefits of electrification are highly heterogeneous. The largest emissions benefit is realized in Europe, followed by South America, North America, Oceania and Africa. Electrification flights originating in Asia produces a net increase in carbon emissions owing to the disproportionate share of miles claimed by Asian countries with a more carbon intensive electrical grid. Indian emissions warrant scrutiny, as its emissions contribution most disproportionately exceeds its mileage contribution. The implications of these findings for decarbonization policy are subsequently discussed.