PAC Off-Policy Prediction of Contextual Bandits

Yilong Wan; Yuqiang Li; Xianyi Wu

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arXiv · 2507.16236

PAC Off-Policy Prediction of Contextual Bandits

Yilong Wan·Yuqiang Li·Xianyi Wu

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Abstract

This paper investigates off-policy evaluation in contextual bandits, aiming to quantify the performance of a target policy using data collected under a different and potentially unknown behavior policy. Recently, methods based on conformal prediction have been developed to construct reliable prediction intervals that guarantee marginal coverage in finite samples, making them particularly suited for safety-critical applications. To further achieve coverage conditional on a given offline data set, we propose a novel algorithm that constructs probably approximately correct prediction intervals. Our method builds upon a PAC-valid conformal prediction framework, and we strengthen its theoretical guarantees by establishing PAC-type bounds on coverage. We analyze both finite-sample and asymptotic properties of the proposed method, and compare its empirical performance with existing methods in simulations.

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BibTeX RIS

Yilong Wan, Yuqiang Li, Xianyi Wu. 2025-07-22. PAC Off-Policy Prediction of Contextual Bandits. https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.16236

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