Estimating Reliability of Electric Vehicle Charging Ecosystem using the Principle of Maximum Entropy

Abstract

This paper addresses the critical challenge of estimating the reliability of an Electric Vehicle (EV) charging systems when facing risks such as overheating, unpredictable, weather, and cyberattacks. Traditional methods for predicting failures often rely on past data or limiting assumptions, making them ineffective for new or less common threats that results in failure. To solve this issue, we utilize the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME), a statistical tool that estimates risks even with limited information. PME works by balancing known constraints to create an unbiased predictions without guessing missing details. Using the EV charging ecosystem as a case study, we show how PME models stress factors responsible for failure. Our findings reveal a critical insight: even minor, localized stress events can trigger disproportionately large drops in overall system reliability, similar to a domino effect. The our PME model demonstrates how high-impact components, such as the power grid, are more likely to fail as stress accumulates, creating network-wide tipping points. Beyond EVs, this approach applies to any complex system with incomplete data, such as smart grids, healthcare devices, or logistics networks. By mathematically establishing an inverse relationship between uncertainty (entropy) and reliability, our work quantifies how greater system unpredictability directly degrades robustness. This offers a universal tool to improve decision-making under unpredictable conditions. This work bridges advanced mathematics with real-world engineering, providing actionable insights for policymakers and industries to build safer, more efficient systems in our increasingly connected world.