A Koopman Operator Framework for Nonlinear Epidemic Dynamics: Application to an SIRSD Model

Abstract

We develop and analyze an SIRSD epidemic model, which extends the classical SIR framework by incorporating waning immunity and disease-induced mortality. A rigorous well-posedness analysis ensures the existence, uniqueness, positivity, and boundedness of solutions, guaranteeing the model's epidemiological feasibility. To facilitate theoretical investigations and data-driven modeling, we reformulated the system in normalized variables. To capture and predict complex nonlinear epidemic dynamics, we use the Koopman operator framework with extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) and an epidemiologically informed dictionary of observables. We compare two Koopman approximations: one based on a minimal epidemiological dictionary and another enriched with nonlinear and cross terms. We generate synthetic data using a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) scheme for four representative epidemics: SARS-CoV-2, seasonal influenza, Ebola, and measles. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the Koopman-based approach effectively identifies dominant epidemic modes and accurately predicts key outbreak characteristics, including peak infection dynamics.