Using Cosmic Rays to Predict the Weather: Meteorological Data Assimilation of Atmospheric Muon Flux Data

Abstract

Numerical weather prediction requires initial estimates of the atmospheric state. Since the atmospheric density field is intricately woven into the atmosphere's governing equations, advancing atmospheric density estimation will improve numerical weather prediction. However, current meteorological instrumentation cannot directly measure the atmospheric density field over large volumes. Existing techniques rely on sparse point measurements, limiting our ability to accurately estimate the three-dimensional atmospheric density field. One potential solution is to employ measurements of the atmospheric muon flux. Atmospheric muons are particles produced when energetic atomic nuclei (cosmic rays) collide with nuclei in the upper atmosphere, producing a shower of secondary particles (muons) that propagates to the Earth's surface. The surface atmospheric muon flux is known to be proportional to the local atmospheric density field, implying that this technique can be used as a measurement of atmospheric density. This study examines the potential for using atmospheric muon flux measurements to improve atmospheric state estimation via a case study of simulated atmospheric muon observations in the path of tropical cyclone Freddy. We show that improvement in data assimilation performance can be achieved using data from a relatively small astroparticle detector, well within the capabilities of existing astroparticle technology. We additionally show that the improvements to atmospheric state estimates associated with muon flux assimilation are at least partially unique to muon flux measurements, as comparable surface pressure point measurements do not reproduce a similar effect.