Fault volume digital twin to reproduce the full slip spectrum, scaling and statistical laws

Abstract

Seismological and geodetic observations of fault zones reveal diverse slip dynamics, scaling, and statistical laws. Existing mechanisms explain some but not all of these behaviors. We show that incorporating an off-fault damage zone-characterized by distributed fractures surrounding a main fault-can reproduce many key features observed in seismic and geodetic data. We model a 2D shear fault zone in which off-fault cracks follow power-law size and density distributions, and are oriented either optimally or parallel to the main fault. All fractures follow rate-and-state friction with parameters enabling slip instabilities. We do not introduce spatial heterogeneities in frictional properties. Using quasi-dynamic boundary integral simulations accelerated by hierarchical matrices, we simulate slip dynamics and analyze events produced both on and off the main fault. Despite spatially uniform frictional properties, we observe a natural continuum from slow to fast ruptures, as seen in nature. Our simulations reproduce the Omori law, inverse Omori law, Gutenberg-Richter scaling, and moment-duration scaling. We observe seismicity localizing toward the main fault before nucleation of main-fault events. During slow slip events, off-fault seismicity migrates in patterns resembling fluid diffusion fronts, despite the absence of fluids. We show that tremors, Very Low Frequency Earthquakes, Low Frequency Earthquakes, Slow Slip Events, and earthquakes can all emerge naturally within this fault volume framework, making it an ideal digital twin for testing hypotheses, performing ground-truth inversions, and probing mechanical properties inaccessible with natural observations.