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arXiv · 2509.08744

Who has the best probabilities? Luck versus skill in prediction tournaments

Niall MacKay
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Abstract

An informal and elementary introduction to probability scoring and forecast verification and improvement, slightly extended from Significance 22:3(2025)16, which might be useful for less mathematical readers as a prologue to the classic review by Gneiting and Raftery [Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation, Journal of the American Statistical Association 102 (2007): 359].

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Niall MacKay. 2025-09-10. Who has the best probabilities? Luck versus skill in prediction tournaments. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrssig%2Fqmaf023

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