Ancestral origins of environmental (in)attention

Abstract

How does the climatic experience of past generations affect today's attitudes towards environmental issues? Using empirical evidence spanning multiple contemporary surveys and ethnic group level cultural records, we show that the intensity of ancestral climate anomalies has a persistent effect on the perceived stakes of environmental considerations in decision-making. The relationship is U-shaped: descendants of groups who faced more stable or more volatile climates attribute higher importance to environmental concerns, with a dip at intermediate levels. Consistent with a cultural transmission channel, environmental content in folklore and other cultural narratives displays the same U-shape. We propose a general model in which environmental attention is a costly choice made before climate conditions are realized, and perceptions of its stakes are shaped by realized gains and losses through an evolutionary process. Because attention is chosen ex ante, selection pressure is coarse: it only disciplines perceptions through average payoffs under the specific climate distribution a group experiences, generating heterogeneous bias across ethnic groups. When environmental attention serves two functions, using typical conditions effectively and protecting against extreme events, the model rationalizes the U-shaped dependence of perceived stakes on ancestral climate anomalies.