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arXiv · 2509.10308

GraphCSVAE: Graph Categorical Structured Variational Autoencoder for Spatiotemporal Auditing of Physical Vulnerability Towards Sustainable Post-Disaster Risk Reduction

Joshua Dimasaka·Christian Geiß·Robert Muir-Wood·Emily So
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Abstract

In the aftermath of disasters, many institutions worldwide face challenges in monitoring changes in disaster risk, limiting assessment of progress towards the UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. While numerous efforts have substantially advanced the large-scale modeling of hazard and exposure through Earth observation and data-driven methods, progress remains limited in modeling another equally important yet challenging element of the risk equation: physical vulnerability. To address this gap, we introduce Graph Categorical Structured Variational Autoencoder (GraphCSVAE), a probabilistic data-driven framework for modeling physical vulnerability by integrating deep learning, graph representation, and categorical probabilistic inference, using time-series satellite-derived datasets and expert priors. We introduce a weakly supervised first-order transition matrix to capture changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of vulnerability across two disaster-affected and socioeconomically disadvantaged regions: the cyclone-impacted Khurushkul community in Bangladesh and the mudslide-affected city of Freetown in Sierra Leone. Across both case studies, the framework constructs large-scale graph representations spanning 2016-2023 and evaluates posterior compositional distributions against expert priors using Aitchison distance due to the lack of temporal groundtruth labels. The work reveals post-disaster regional dynamics in physical vulnerability, offering valuable insights into localized spatiotemporal auditing and sustainable strategies for post-disaster risk reduction.

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Joshua Dimasaka, Christian Geiß, Robert Muir-Wood, Emily So. 2026-05-20. GraphCSVAE: Graph Categorical Structured Variational Autoencoder for Spatiotemporal Auditing of Physical Vulnerability Towards Sustainable Post-Disaster Risk Reduction. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100601

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