Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Brent W. Barbee; Matthew A. Vavrina; Rylie Bull; Adrienne Rudolph; Davide Farnocchia; Russell TerBeek; Justin Atchison; Joshua Lyzhoft; Jessie Dotson; Patrick King; Paul W. Chodas; Dawn Graninger; Ronald G. Mink; Kathryn M. Kumamoto; Jason M. Pearl; Mary Burkey; Isaiah Santistevan; Catherine S. Plesko; Wendy K. Caldwell; Megan Harwell

arXiv · 2509.12351

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

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Abstract

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at about 3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching about 4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid's diameter at 60 +/- 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR4's potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. We cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

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Brent W. Barbee, Matthew A. Vavrina, Rylie Bull, Adrienne Rudolph, Davide Farnocchia, Russell TerBeek, Justin Atchison, Joshua Lyzhoft, Jessie Dotson, Patrick King, Paul W. Chodas, Dawn Graninger, Ronald G. Mink, Kathryn M. Kumamoto, Jason M. Pearl, Mary Burkey, Isaiah Santistevan, Catherine S. Plesko, Wendy K. Caldwell, Megan Harwell. 2025-09-15. Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.12351

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