Breaking the Cycle of Incarceration With Targeted Mental Health Outreach: A Case Study in Machine Learning for Public Policy

Kit T. Rodolfa; Erika Salomon; Jin Yao; Steve Yoder; Robert Sullivan; Kevin McGuire; Allie Dickinson; Rob MacDougall; Brian Seidler; Christina Sung; Claire Herdeman; Rayid Ghani

arXiv · 2509.14129

Breaking the Cycle of Incarceration With Targeted Mental Health Outreach: A Case Study in Machine Learning for Public Policy

Kit T. Rodolfa·Erika Salomon·Jin Yao·Steve Yoder·Robert Sullivan·Kevin McGuire·Allie Dickinson·Rob MacDougall·Brian Seidler·Christina Sung·Claire Herdeman·Rayid Ghani

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Abstract

Many incarcerated individuals face significant and complex challenges, including mental illness, substance dependence, and homelessness, yet jails and prisons are often poorly equipped to address these needs. With little support from the existing criminal justice system, these needs can remain untreated and worsen, often leading to further offenses and a cycle of incarceration with adverse outcomes both for the individual and for public safety, with particularly large impacts on communities of color that continue to widen the already extensive racial disparities in criminal justice outcomes. Responding to these failures, a growing number of criminal justice stakeholders are seeking to break this cycle through innovative approaches such as community-driven and alternative approaches to policing, mentoring, community building, restorative justice, pretrial diversion, holistic defense, and social service connections. Here we report on a collaboration between Johnson County, Kansas, and Carnegie Mellon University to perform targeted, proactive mental health outreach in an effort to reduce reincarceration rates. This paper describes the data used, our predictive modeling approach and results, as well as the design and analysis of a field trial conducted to confirm our model's predictive power, evaluate the impact of this targeted outreach, and understand at what level of reincarceration risk outreach might be most effective. Through this trial, we find that our model is highly predictive of new jail bookings, with more than half of individuals in the trial's highest-risk group returning to jail in the following year. Outreach was most effective among these highest-risk individuals, with impacts on mental health utilization, EMS dispatches, and criminal justice involvement.

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Kit T. Rodolfa, Erika Salomon, Jin Yao, Steve Yoder, Robert Sullivan, Kevin McGuire, Allie Dickinson, Rob MacDougall, Brian Seidler, Christina Sung, Claire Herdeman, Rayid Ghani. 2025-09-17. Breaking the Cycle of Incarceration With Targeted Mental Health Outreach: A Case Study in Machine Learning for Public Policy. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.14129

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