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arXiv · 2509.16014

Predicting the descent into extremism and terrorism

R. O. Lane·W. J. Holmes·C. J. Taylor·H. M. State-Davey·A. J. Wragge
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Abstract

This paper proposes an approach for automatically analysing and tracking statements in material gathered online and detecting whether the authors of the statements are likely to be involved in extremism or terrorism. The proposed system comprises: online collation of statements that are then encoded in a form amenable to machine learning (ML), an ML component to classify the encoded text, a tracker, and a visualisation system for analysis of results. The detection and tracking concept has been tested using quotes made by terrorists, extremists, campaigners, and politicians, obtained from wikiquote.org. A set of features was extracted for each quote using the state-of-the-art Universal Sentence Encoder (Cer et al. 2018), which produces 512-dimensional vectors. The data were used to train and test a support vector machine (SVM) classifier using 10-fold cross-validation. The system was able to correctly detect intentions and attitudes associated with extremism 81% of the time and terrorism 97% of the time, using a dataset of 839 quotes. This accuracy was higher than that which was achieved for a simple baseline system based on n-gram text features. Tracking techniques were also used to perform a temporal analysis of the data, with each quote considered to be a noisy measurement of a person's state of mind. It was demonstrated that the tracking algorithms were able to detect both trends over time and sharp changes in attitude that could be attributed to major events.

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R. O. Lane, W. J. Holmes, C. J. Taylor, H. M. State-Davey, A. J. Wragge. 2025-09-19. Predicting the descent into extremism and terrorism. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.16014

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