Flare energetics, CME launch and heliospheric propagation for the May 2024 events, as derived from ensemble MHD modelling

Abstract

Many questions must be answered before understanding the relationship between the emerging magnetic flux through the solar surface and the extreme geoeffective events. The main ingredients for getting X-ray class flares and large interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the build-up of electric current in the corona, the existence of magnetic free energy, magnetic energy/helicity ratio, twist, and magnetic stress in active regions (ARs). The upper limit of solar energy in the space research era, as well as the potential for experiencing superflares and extreme solar events, can be predicted using MHD simulations of CMEs. To address this problem, we consider the recent events of May 2024 and use three MHD models: 1) OHM ("Observationally driven High order scheme Magnetohydrodynamic code") for investigating the magnetic evolutions at a synthetic dipole structure. 2) TMF (time-dependent magneto-friction) for setting up an initial non-potential magnetic field in the active region. A zero-beta MHD model for tracing the magnetic evolution of active regions. 3) EUHFORIA (''European heliospheric forecasting information asset'') for interplanetary CME propagations. For the eruptive flares with CMEs, magnetic solar energy is computed along with data-constrained MHD simulations for the May 2024 events. We show the consistency between the data-initiated realistic simulation of the May 2024 big event and energy scalings from an idealised simulation of a bipolar eruption using OHM. The estimated free magnetic energy did not surpass $5.2 \times 10^{32}\;$erg. Good arrival time predictions ($<3$ hours) are achieved with the EUHFORIA simulation with the cone model. We note the interest in coupling all the chains of codes from the Sun to the Earth and developing different approaches to test the results.