A data-driven global ocean forecasting model with sub-daily and eddy-resolving resolution

Abstract

High-fidelity ocean forecasting at high spatial and temporal resolution is essential for capturing fine-scale dynamical features, with profound implications for hazard prediction, maritime navigation, and sustainable ocean management. While conventional numerical models can generate sub-daily, eddy-resolving forecasts, they demand substantial computational resources and often struggle to maintain predictive skill at such fine scales. Data-driven models offer a promising alternative with significantly higher computational efficiency; however, most are constrained to daily outputs and show a rapid decay in accuracy when extended to sub-daily timescales. Here, we introduce TianHai, the first-of-its-kind global data-driven 6-hour forecasting model, which delivers predictions at 1/12° eddy-resolving resolution with a vertical extent down to 1,500 m. A key feature of TianHai is the integration of atmospheric forcings through FuXi-Atmosphere, a data-driven atmospheric forecasting system, which enables the explicit representation of air-sea coupling effects. Unlike conventional approaches, TianHai does not rely on numerical atmospheric models or external meteorological forecasts, making it a fully data-driven framework for coupled prediction. Benchmark experiments demonstrate that TianHai delivers state-of-the-art performance in forecasting temperature and salinity profiles, zonal and meridional currents, sea surface temperature, and sea level anomalies for lead times ranging from 1 to 10 days.