Improved Vehicle Maneuver Prediction using Game Theoretic Priors

Abstract

Conventional maneuver prediction methods use some sort of classification model on temporal trajectory data to predict behavior of agents over a set time horizon. Despite of having the best precision and recall, these models cannot predict a lane change accurately unless they incorporate information about the entire scene. Level-k game theory can leverage the human-like hierarchical reasoning to come up with the most rational decisions each agent can make in a group. This can be leveraged to model interactions between different vehicles in presence of each other and hence compute the most rational decisions each agent would make. The result of game theoretic evaluation can be used as a "prior" or combined with a traditional motion-based classification model to achieve more accurate predictions. The proposed approach assumes that the states of the vehicles around the target lead vehicle are known. The module will output the most rational maneuver prediction of the target vehicle based on an online optimization solution. These predictions are instrumental in decision making systems like Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) or Traxen's iQ-Cruise further improving the resulting fuel savings.