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arXiv · 2509.23000

Sample-efficient Multiclass Calibration under $\ell_{p}$ Error

Konstantina Bairaktari·Huy L. Nguyen
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Abstract

Calibrating a multiclass predictor, that outputs a distribution over labels, is particularly challenging due to the exponential number of possible prediction values. In this work, we propose a new definition of calibration error that interpolates between two established calibration error notions, one with known exponential sample complexity and one with polynomial sample complexity for calibrating a given predictor. Our algorithm can calibrate any given predictor for the entire range of interpolation, except for one endpoint, using only a polynomial number of samples. At the other endpoint, we achieve nearly optimal dependence on the error parameter, improving upon previous work. A key technical contribution is a novel application of adaptive data analysis with high adaptivity but only logarithmic overhead in the sample complexity.

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Konstantina Bairaktari, Huy L. Nguyen. 2025-09-26. Sample-efficient Multiclass Calibration under $\ell_{p}$ Error. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.23000

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