On the effectiveness of odor-baited traps on mosquito-borne infections

Haonan Zhong; Marina Lima; Andrea Pugliese; Michela Sabbatino; Cinzia Soresina; Tamas Tekeli

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arXiv · 2509.23397

On the effectiveness of odor-baited traps on mosquito-borne infections

Haonan Zhong·Marina Lima·Andrea Pugliese·Michela Sabbatino·Cinzia Soresina·Tamas Tekeli

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Abstract

The host's odor serves as a critical biological tracking signal in the host-seeking process of mosquitoes, and its heterogeneity significantly influences the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. In this study, we propose a mosquito-borne disease model incorporating odor-baited traps to examine the impact of odor on disease transmission. Following recent experimental evidence, we also assume that infected humans are more attractive than susceptible or recovered ones. The value of the basic reproduction number, $R_0$, depends on the attractiveness of traps, adjusted relative to infected individuals; the dependence on the relative attractiveness of susceptibles is non-monotone, suggesting that there exists an optimal mosquito preference that maximizes disease transmission. When $R_0>1$, there exists an endemic equilibrium which, under certain conditions, is proved to be globally stable. An endemic equilibrium may also exist when $R_0 < 1$, due to a backward bifurcation occurring when infected humans incur significant mortality. The phenomenon of backward bifurcation is reduced when odor-baited traps are more abundant. Analytical results and simulations show that deploying traps and enhancing their lethality for mosquitoes can help reduce disease prevalence and the risk of an outbreak. However, the attenuation of odor in highly attractive traps may lead to a rebound in the epidemic, especially when the traps gradually lose their attractiveness compared to susceptible hosts.

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Haonan Zhong, Marina Lima, Andrea Pugliese, Michela Sabbatino, Cinzia Soresina, Tamas Tekeli. 2025-09-27. On the effectiveness of odor-baited traps on mosquito-borne infections. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.23397

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