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arXiv · 2509.24657

Modelling the control of West Nile virus using mosquito reduction methods, vaccination of equids, and human behavioral adaptation to the usage of personal protective equipment

Pride Duve·Felix Gregor Sauer·Renke Lühken
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Abstract

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus in the genus Flavivirus that circulates between mosquitoes and birds, whereas humans, equids, and other mammals are dead-end hosts. Since its emergence in Germany in 2018, the virus has spread across the country, emphasising the need for effective intervention strategies. However, it remains unclear how different strategies should be combined and timed to effectively reduce WNV transmission under temperature-driven dynamics. In this study, we develop a temperature-dependent, process-based model to evaluate the effectiveness of WNV control strategies, such as mosquito reduction methods, equid vaccination, and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE). Human behavioural responses to infection risk are incorporated through imitation dynamics that capture how individuals adopt PPE based on perceived infection risk and social influence. An optimal control problem has been formulated and studied to determine the seasonal timing of mosquito controls under temperature forcing. Results suggest that mosquito control efforts initiated in early spring and intensified in early May, may reduce the August peak in the infectious bird population. Moreover, a combined scenario of mosquito control methods, human PPE adoption, and equid vaccination could be the best strategy among dead-end hosts. The analysis of various combinations of constant controls is available as an interactive application, allowing users to explore intervention strategies under different temperature projections corresponding to the low-mitigation (SSP126), intermediate (SSP245), and high-emission (SSP585) scenarios.

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Pride Duve, Felix Gregor Sauer, Renke Lühken. 2026-03-17. Modelling the control of West Nile virus using mosquito reduction methods, vaccination of equids, and human behavioral adaptation to the usage of personal protective equipment. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.24657

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