Early warning of critical transitions: distinguishing tipping points from Turing destabilizations

Abstract

Current early warning signs for tipping points often fail to distinguish between catastrophic shifts and less dramatic state changes, such as spatial pattern formation. This paper introduces a novel method that addresses this limitation by providing more information about the type of bifurcation being approached starting from a spatially homogeneous system state. This method relies on estimates of the dispersion relation from noisy spatio-temporal data, which reveals whether the system is approaching a spatially homogeneous (tipping) or spatially heterogeneous (Turing patterning) bifurcation. Using a modified Klausmeier model, we validate this method on synthetic data, exploring its performance under varying conditions including noise properties and distance to bifurcation. We also determine the data requirements for optimal performance. Our results indicate the promise of a new spatial early warning system built on this method to improve predictions of future transitions in many climate subsystems and ecosystems, which is critical for effective conservation and management in a rapidly changing world.