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arXiv · 2510.02485

Data-Driven Stochastic Distribution System Hardening Based on Bayesian Online Learning

Wenlong Shi·Hongyi Li·Zhaoyu Wang
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Abstract

Extreme weather frequently cause widespread outages in distribution systems (DSs), demonstrating the importance of hardening strategies for resilience enhancement. However, the well-utilization of real-world outage data with associated weather conditions to make informed hardening decisions in DSs is still an open issue. To bridge this research gap, this paper proposes a data-driven stochastic distribution line (DL) hardening strategy. First, a deep neural network (DNN) regression model is developed to predict the probabilistic evolution of outage scenarios under various hardening decisions. Based on the DNN predictions, the problem is formulated as a decision-dependent distributionally robust optimization (DRO) model, accounting for uncertainties in outage scenario distributions using a data-driven ambiguity set. To address decision-dependent uncertainty, a Bayesian online learning algorithm is proposed. This algorithm decomposes the original problem into inner and outer problems. Then, it iteratively refines hardening decisions by sequentially incorporating outage data and dynamically updating decision-specific ambiguity sets by using Bayes' theorem and Bayesian Inference. Also, the convergence of the algorithm is proven through dynamic regret analysis. Finally, case studies are implemented on a real-world DS in Redfield, Iowa, USA. A dataset spanning 24 years (2001-2024) is constructed based on the utility outage records. The simulation results validates the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

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Wenlong Shi, Hongyi Li, Zhaoyu Wang. 2025-10-02. Data-Driven Stochastic Distribution System Hardening Based on Bayesian Online Learning. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.02485

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